Southampton will host Liverpool as a 1.5-goal underdog at St. Mary’s Stadium this Sunday. The Reds are the favorites, having won eight consecutive Premier League games against Southampton after a victory.
Liverpool, currently +120 to win the Premier League, have been strong under new manager Arne Slot, winning 9 of their first 11 matches. Their most recent triumph was a 2-0 home win over Aston Villa. In contrast, Southampton sit at the bottom of the table, having suffered five defeats in their last six matches.
Here’s a look at the current Premier League odds:
Southampton vs. Liverpool Odds:
- Spread: Liverpool -1.5 (-135), Southampton +1.5 (-105)
- Total (O/U): 3.5 (+115)
- Moneyline: Liverpool -350, Southampton +875, Draw +475
Betting Insights: Southampton vs. Liverpool
Statistically, there’s a betting trend that favors Southampton covering the +1.5 spread. Since 2012, underdogs at +1.5 or +2 following a previous match as an underdog have covered 72% of the time under certain conditions:
- The underdog’s last match margin is between -3 and +0.
- The favorite’s last match margin is between +0 and +2.
- The spread is between -145 and +140.
However, despite the promising historical data, I’m not fully backing Southampton in this instance. In their three matches this season against top-tier teams, they’ve failed to stay within the spread against Arsenal and Manchester United. They did manage to keep it within one goal against Manchester City, but that was largely due to fortunate circumstances based on expected goals.
Southampton’s overall numbers against the top clubs are concerning: a -6 goal differential and similar negative expected goal metrics across all three games. While Liverpool has occasionally struggled to cover the spread on the road against weaker teams (like Ipswich Town, Wolves, and Crystal Palace), they did manage to cover against Ipswich, who are currently closest in quality to Southampton.
Another factor to consider is Liverpool’s midweek clash against Real Madrid in the Champions League. This could lead to some rotation, potentially affecting their performance. Even with changes to the lineup, however, I expect Liverpool to still cover the spread.
In summary, despite the betting trend and some historical indications, I lean toward Liverpool covering the spread, but I’m not fully endorsing this bet due to Southampton’s poor form against top sides.
