Newcastle is set to host West Ham at St. James’ Park this Monday, with the Magpies favored by 1.5 goals. While Newcastle comes into the match with momentum, having won 3-1 against Nottingham Forest before the international break, West Ham has struggled in recent fixtures, particularly away from home.
Current Form: Newcastle is in a strong position after their recent win, but their form has been somewhat inconsistent, especially in the first half of matches. West Ham, on the other hand, has had a challenging run of late, managing only one win in their last four matches. On the road, they’ve earned just five points from five matches this season.
Betting Odds for Newcastle vs. West Ham:
- Spread: West Ham +1.5 (-190) | Newcastle -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under Total: 2.5
- Moneyline: Newcastle -185 | West Ham +450 | Draw +333
Prediction: Given Newcastle’s strong second-half performances and West Ham’s struggles defensively, my prediction for this match focuses on the second half, where I expect Newcastle to secure a victory.
Historically, Newcastle has been stronger in the second half of matches, creating significantly more chances after the break. So far this season, they’ve generated 10.01 expected goals (xG) in the second half alone, out of a total of 16.11 xG. This trend remains consistent even with longer breaks between games, like the one they’ve had leading into this match. In two games with 14+ days between matches, Newcastle created 2.4 xG in the second half and earned a win and a draw.
Additionally, their head-to-head performance against West Ham last season further supports this. Newcastle won both second halves in their meetings with the Hammers, including a 2-1 and 3-1 win in those periods. The xG and post-shot xG metrics heavily favored Newcastle in both of those second halves, showcasing their dominance.
With this in mind, I’m backing Newcastle to win the second half (-125), which I believe will also lead to an overall victory. For those willing to take a bolder approach, Newcastle to win from behind (+675) could offer additional value, given the team’s ability to turn matches in their favor after halftime.
This game sets up as an opportunity for Newcastle to capitalize on their second-half strength while West Ham’s defensive issues could cost them again.
