Fulham will look to extend their winning streak to three games when they host Wolves at Craven Cottage this Saturday. With the Cottagers in solid form and Wolves struggling at the bottom of the Premier League table, Fulham is poised to secure all three points in this matchup.
Current Form: Fulham enters the game on a positive note after a 2-0 victory over Crystal Palace before the international break. That win marked their second consecutive victory and extended their unbeaten run to three matches. Meanwhile, Wolves secured a much-needed 2-0 win over Southampton in their last match, but they remain in the relegation zone, sitting 19th in the league.
Betting Odds for Fulham vs. Wolves:
- Spread: Fulham -0.5 (-160) | Wolves +0.5 (+110)
- Over/Under Total: 2.5
- Moneyline: Fulham -145 | Wolves +360 | Draw +290
Prediction: I’m backing Fulham to win outright in this fixture, with a combined bet on the Fulham Moneyline & Over 1.5 Goals at odds of -110. This bet makes sense given Fulham’s current form and their strong home record.
Fulham has been consistently outperforming expectations, and their underlying statistics back up their recent performances. Only six teams have a better expected goal differential than Fulham this season, and they have been especially strong at home. They’ve yet to lose on expected goals at Craven Cottage, and their attack has been more effective against weaker opposition.
In their last meeting with Wolves, Fulham dominated the expected goals (xG) battle, despite losing 2-1 at Molineux. Fulham registered a 2.7-0.8 xG advantage, and over the last two matchups, they’ve outperformed Wolves by +3.42 xG. Even if you exclude penalties, Fulham still holds a +2.63 xG edge.
Looking at Fulham’s home performances against lower-ranked sides, they’ve shown their ability to control the match. Earlier this season, they defeated Leicester City 2-1 with a solid +1.2 xG advantage. These stats suggest Fulham is undervalued by the market, and they are in a historically strong position. Home favorites in similar situations (with 9-15 days between matches) have performed well, with a record of 96-38 since 2012.
Wolves’ Away Struggles: Wolves have had a tough time away from home this season, especially against mid-tier teams. Their recent trips to Brentford and Nottingham Forest ended in a draw and a loss, with both defeats coming by a margin of at least one post-shot xG.
With Wolves’ defensive vulnerabilities on the road and Fulham’s solid form, I expect the hosts to dominate and secure a comfortable victory. Take Fulham to earn all three points on Saturday and consider the over 1.5 goals for added value.
