Everton will host Brentford at Goodison Park as a slight 0.5-goal favorite this Saturday. Brentford has struggled historically as underdogs after a win, losing nine consecutive Premier League matches in that scenario. My prediction for this matchup hinges on Brentford’s injury updates.
Everton are looking for their seventh positive result in eight matches. Before the international break, they played to a goalless draw away at West Ham. Since a narrow 1-0 loss at Southampton on September 21, the Toffees have been in solid form.
Brentford, on the other hand, secured a thrilling 3-2 win at home against Bournemouth before the break, extending their unbeaten streak at home to six matches. However, they have yet to pick up a point away from home this season.
Premier League Odds: Everton vs. Brentford
- Spread: Everton -0.5 (+125), Brentford +0.5 (-185)
- Total (O/U): 2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Everton +138, Brentford +190, Draw +240
Betting Prediction: Everton vs. Brentford
If Brentford is without key attackers Bryan Mbeumo and Yoanne Wissa, I would lean towards backing Everton on the moneyline (+138). I expect the line to shift if both players are confirmed absent, and if the odds hit +110 or better, I’d feel even more confident in backing Everton.
Home favorites in this price range (between -245 and +112 on the three-way moneyline) have been strong performers historically, with a record of 96-38 since 2012 when they’ve had a rest period of nine to 15 days between matches. Even in tighter odds ranges of -112 to +112, such teams are 28-9 in the same period.
Everton also has a solid recent record against Brentford, winning both head-to-head encounters last season. The expected goals from those matches favored Everton 2.76 to 1.91, along with a +2 edge in big chances.
The key for Everton’s success in this match will be whether Brentford’s attacking duo, Mbeumo and Wissa, are fit to play. Together, they have contributed to 41% of Brentford’s non-penalty expected goals this season, so their absence would significantly weaken the Bees’ attack.
Additionally, Everton may have a stronger lineup with the potential return of central defender Jarrad Branthwaite, whose presence has made a noticeable difference in their results. When Branthwaite starts, Everton’s record dating back to last season is 13-10-14, showing a clear improvement with him in the lineup.
The return of Dwight McNeil could further boost Everton’s attacking options. McNeil ranks second on the team in non-penalty expected goals plus assists, adding depth to the Toffees’ forward play.
If the injury news falls in Everton’s favor, I’ll back them to secure all three points at Goodison Park.
