This Saturday, Bournemouth will face Brighton & Hove Albion in a South Coast derby at Vitality Stadium, with the Cherries set as slight favorites at -0.5. Both teams have been showing mixed but competitive form in the Premier League, making this match one to watch closely.
Bournemouth recently suffered a narrow 3-2 defeat at Brentford, which ended a three-game unbeaten streak, a run during which they were often considered underdogs. In contrast, Brighton enters this match on the back of an impressive 2-1 win against Manchester City, having turned the game around after trailing at halftime. Brighton is currently sitting comfortably in sixth place in the league, showcasing their resilience.
For betting purposes, here’s a closer look at the odds and a prediction for Bournemouth vs. Brighton.
Betting Odds: Bournemouth vs. Brighton
- Spread: Brighton +0.5 (-175) | Bournemouth -0.5 (+120)
- Over/Under Total: 2.5 (O/U)
- Moneyline: Brighton +180 | Bournemouth +130 | Draw +270
Match Prediction: If Antoine Semenyo is in the starting lineup for Bournemouth, I’m leaning towards backing Bournemouth to score over 0.5 goals in the first half (-130). This bet hinges largely on Semenyo’s availability, as he has been a key attacking player for the Cherries.
Brighton has struggled defensively in the opening 45 minutes of their matches. They’ve conceded over 10 expected goals in the first half so far this season, a significant increase compared to the second half where they have allowed only around 8.91 expected goals. Despite this, they’ve been fortunate in some respects, with only five goals conceded in the first half across 11 matches. In fact, their defense has shown vulnerability early, allowing more than their expected tally.
Bournemouth, despite not being prolific in the first half, has scored in four of their last 11 matches. More importantly, they have found the net in the first half of their last two games, showing improved attacking form. Against Brighton last season, Bournemouth was able to create plenty of chances early, scoring within the first 30 minutes in both encounters.
The main factor to consider here is the inclusion of Semenyo. If he plays, his presence in attack will significantly boost Bournemouth’s chances of scoring early. Without him, however, they lose a key offensive threat, which could impact their ability to take control of the game.
I’ll hold off on making a definitive prediction until the starting lineups are confirmed, but if Semenyo is available, betting on Bournemouth to score in the first half could be a strong option.