Aston Villa will be looking to bounce back from a four-match winless streak when they host Crystal Palace at Villa Park this weekend. Villa has been struggling in recent weeks but remains strong at home, while Palace heads into the match after a defeat to Fulham, ending their own unbeaten run.
Current Form: Aston Villa has seen their momentum falter, losing back-to-back games to Tottenham and Liverpool, which has left them in ninth place in the Premier League. However, their home form remains solid, as they’ve yet to lose in their last four home games. Meanwhile, Crystal Palace was beaten 2-0 by Fulham before the break, ending a three-match unbeaten stretch. Their recent League Cup win over Villa shows they can be competitive, but they’ve struggled away from home this season.
Betting Odds for Aston Villa vs. Crystal Palace:
- Spread: Villa -0.5 (-185) | Palace +0.5 (+125)
- Over/Under Total: 2.5
- Moneyline: Villa -165 | Palace +425 | Draw +310
Prediction: Considering Villa’s strong home form and Palace’s struggles on the road, my prediction for this match is a Same Game Parlay: Aston Villa to win and over 1.5 goals (-120).
Villa has been slightly unlucky in recent matches, especially with their home goal differential, which stands at +0 compared to their expected goal differential of +3, suggesting they’re due for a positive regression. Palace, on the other hand, has been fortunate in their away matches, with a -2 goal differential and a -4 post-shot expected goal differential in recent trips to Brentford, Chelsea, and Nottingham Forest.
Aston Villa also has a strong record against Crystal Palace at Villa Park. In their last meeting, Villa triumphed 3-1, dominating the expected goals (xG) battle with a -2.04 xG difference in favor of Villa. Moreover, Villa has a solid track record under Unai Emery when playing at home after a loss. Since Emery’s appointment, Villa has won 6 of 7 home games following a defeat, and they are 12-3 in matches after a loss or draw.
Historical trends also support backing Villa in this spot. Home favorites with a few days of rest (9-15 days) have been successful, with a 96-38 record since 2012, and 27-8 in the last four seasons. Specifically, teams in the -245 to -165 range are 27-7 SU since 2020, further bolstering Villa’s chances.
Given that Villa is strong at home and Palace struggles on the road, I’m confident that Villa will take all three points in this match. Additionally, with Villa’s attacking prowess and Palace’s defensive vulnerabilities, I expect at least two goals to be scored, making the over 1.5 goals a solid addition to the bet.
Final Pick: Aston Villa Moneyline & Over 1.5 Goals (-120).
