Arsenal welcomes Nottingham Forest to the Emirates Stadium this weekend, with the Gunners as 1.5-goal favorites. Despite Arsenal’s strong home record, my prediction for this match points toward Forest covering the spread.
Arsenal’s form has been underwhelming recently, with the team winless in their last four league games. They managed just a 1-1 draw away to Chelsea before the international break, and while they did beat Forest 2-0 last season, their overall performances this year have been less convincing.
In contrast, Nottingham Forest has been one of the season’s surprise packages. Managed by Nuno Espirito Santo, the team is currently fifth in the Premier League and remains unbeaten away from home so far this season.
Betting Odds for Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest:
- Spread: Arsenal -1.5 (-110) | Nottingham Forest +1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under Total: 2.5
- Moneyline: Arsenal -300 | Nottingham Forest +825 | Draw +400
Prediction for Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest: I believe Nottingham Forest will be able to cover the +1.5 spread in this match. This is largely based on Forest’s exceptional defensive record and how they’ve performed against top teams this season.
Forest currently ranks second in the league for expected goals against and third for post-shot expected goals allowed, according to fbref.com. Their defensive resilience has been especially noticeable on the road. In tough away matches against Liverpool and Chelsea, Forest allowed just 1.35 post-shot expected goals over 167 minutes of play. This defensive solidity makes them a tough opponent for Arsenal, who have struggled to create high-quality chances this season.
Arsenal sits eighth in expected goals and fifth in post-shot expected goals, suggesting that their attack isn’t as potent as it has been in past seasons. Forest’s defense has also excelled against set-piece attacks, an area where Arsenal typically thrives. The Gunners are ranked fourth in xG from set pieces, but Forest ranks second in defending those situations, which could limit Arsenal’s chances of scoring from dead-ball situations.
Looking at historical trends, underdogs with a +1.5 or +2 spread have a strong track record in the Premier League, covering 71.8% of the time since 2012. Forest has been competitive in their recent meetings with Arsenal, staying within the spread in both games last season, so I expect them to do the same this time.
Given Forest’s defensive record and how they’ve held their ground against strong teams, I believe they can cover the +1.5 spread in this encounter.
