21/11/2024 - GetBet Funded

The highly anticipated bantamweight showdown between Petr Yan and Deiveson Figueiredo headlines UFC Macau on November 23. Both fighters are coming off victories in their most recent bouts, but Yan enters as the clear favorite, with odds of -370, while Figueiredo is the +380 underdog.

This matchup features two of the top bantamweight contenders in the UFC. Yan, ranked No. 3 in the division, will face No. 5-ranked Figueiredo at the Galaxy Arena in Macau, China. Yan, a former bantamweight champion, is widely regarded as one of the most dangerous fighters in the division, making him the betting favorite. Figueiredo, although a former UFC flyweight champion and undefeated in the bantamweight division, faces an uphill battle against the more established Yan.

UFC Macau Odds: Petr Yan vs. Deiveson Figueiredo

Petr Yan: -370
Deiveson Figueiredo: +380

Petr Yan vs. Deiveson Figueiredo: Fight Prediction

Petr Yan’s explosive power and aggressive striking make him a serious threat in the bantamweight division, and I expect him to finish Figueiredo via TKO/KO. At 31, Yan is at the peak of his career, bringing speed, precision, and physicality to the octagon.

In terms of physical attributes, there isn’t much separating the two men. Yan holds a 2-inch height advantage, while Figueiredo has a slight 1-inch reach edge.

Stylistically, Yan excels with his elite striking, utilizing sharp combinations and heavy kicks to overwhelm opponents. His boxing and kickboxing have been key in his success, and his solid takedown defense further complements his stand-up game. On the other hand, Figueiredo is known for his grappling-heavy approach, with equal amounts of TKO/KO and submission finishes throughout his career.

Despite Figueiredo’s success since moving up to bantamweight, winning all three of his fights in the division, his age—turning 37 later this year—could be a significant factor. As an older fighter, Figueiredo may not possess the same explosiveness or athleticism that he did in his prime. Yan, with his speed and footwork, will look to exploit this. Once Yan lands his powerful strikes, Figueiredo could be in trouble.

Recent Fight Results: Petr Yan

Petr Yan, a former ACB champion, made his UFC debut in 2018 with a first-round finish over Teruto Ishihara. After winning his next six UFC fights, he claimed the vacant bantamweight title in 2020 with a win over José Aldo. However, Yan’s reign was short-lived, as he lost the belt via disqualification to Aljamain Sterling in 2021. Since then, Yan has gone 2-3 in his last five fights, with his most recent victory being a unanimous decision win over Song Yadong in March 2024.

Recent Fight Results: Deiveson Figueiredo

Figueiredo, a two-time UFC flyweight champion, built a legacy in the flyweight division with wins over notable fighters like Jarred Brooks, Brandon Moreno, and Joseph Benavidez. In 2023, he made the move to bantamweight and has found success, winning all his bouts in the new weight class. Figueiredo’s bantamweight victories include wins over Rob Font, Cody Garbrandt, and Marlon Vera, earning him a spot in the division’s top five.

Tale of the Tape: Petr Yan vs. Deiveson Figueiredo

Statistic	Petr Yan	Deiveson Figueiredo
Age	31	36
Height	5’7”	5’5”
Reach	67 inches	68 inches
Leg Reach	38 inches	38 inches
Record	17-5	24-3-1
Fighting Style	Striker	Grappler/Striker
Finishing Rate	47%	75%

With Yan’s youth, power, and elite striking against Figueiredo’s experience and grappling skills, this fight promises to be an exciting clash. If Figueiredo cannot match Yan’s pace and intensity, the former bantamweight champion should emerge victorious with a finish.

Everton will host Brentford at Goodison Park as a slight 0.5-goal favorite this Saturday. Brentford has struggled historically as underdogs after a win, losing nine consecutive Premier League matches in that scenario. My prediction for this matchup hinges on Brentford’s injury updates.

Everton are looking for their seventh positive result in eight matches. Before the international break, they played to a goalless draw away at West Ham. Since a narrow 1-0 loss at Southampton on September 21, the Toffees have been in solid form.

Brentford, on the other hand, secured a thrilling 3-2 win at home against Bournemouth before the break, extending their unbeaten streak at home to six matches. However, they have yet to pick up a point away from home this season.

Premier League Odds: Everton vs. Brentford

Spread: Everton -0.5 (+125), Brentford +0.5 (-185)
Total (O/U): 2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Everton +138, Brentford +190, Draw +240

Betting Prediction: Everton vs. Brentford

If Brentford is without key attackers Bryan Mbeumo and Yoanne Wissa, I would lean towards backing Everton on the moneyline (+138). I expect the line to shift if both players are confirmed absent, and if the odds hit +110 or better, I’d feel even more confident in backing Everton.

Home favorites in this price range (between -245 and +112 on the three-way moneyline) have been strong performers historically, with a record of 96-38 since 2012 when they’ve had a rest period of nine to 15 days between matches. Even in tighter odds ranges of -112 to +112, such teams are 28-9 in the same period.

Everton also has a solid recent record against Brentford, winning both head-to-head encounters last season. The expected goals from those matches favored Everton 2.76 to 1.91, along with a +2 edge in big chances.

The key for Everton’s success in this match will be whether Brentford’s attacking duo, Mbeumo and Wissa, are fit to play. Together, they have contributed to 41% of Brentford’s non-penalty expected goals this season, so their absence would significantly weaken the Bees’ attack.

Additionally, Everton may have a stronger lineup with the potential return of central defender Jarrad Branthwaite, whose presence has made a noticeable difference in their results. When Branthwaite starts, Everton’s record dating back to last season is 13-10-14, showing a clear improvement with him in the lineup.

The return of Dwight McNeil could further boost Everton’s attacking options. McNeil ranks second on the team in non-penalty expected goals plus assists, adding depth to the Toffees’ forward play.

If the injury news falls in Everton’s favor, I’ll back them to secure all three points at Goodison Park.

Southampton will host Liverpool as a 1.5-goal underdog at St. Mary’s Stadium this Sunday. The Reds are the favorites, having won eight consecutive Premier League games against Southampton after a victory.

Liverpool, currently +120 to win the Premier League, have been strong under new manager Arne Slot, winning 9 of their first 11 matches. Their most recent triumph was a 2-0 home win over Aston Villa. In contrast, Southampton sit at the bottom of the table, having suffered five defeats in their last six matches.

Here’s a look at the current Premier League odds:

Southampton vs. Liverpool Odds:

Spread: Liverpool -1.5 (-135), Southampton +1.5 (-105)
Total (O/U): 3.5 (+115)
Moneyline: Liverpool -350, Southampton +875, Draw +475

Betting Insights: Southampton vs. Liverpool

Statistically, there’s a betting trend that favors Southampton covering the +1.5 spread. Since 2012, underdogs at +1.5 or +2 following a previous match as an underdog have covered 72% of the time under certain conditions:

The underdog’s last match margin is between -3 and +0.
The favorite’s last match margin is between +0 and +2.
The spread is between -145 and +140.

However, despite the promising historical data, I’m not fully backing Southampton in this instance. In their three matches this season against top-tier teams, they’ve failed to stay within the spread against Arsenal and Manchester United. They did manage to keep it within one goal against Manchester City, but that was largely due to fortunate circumstances based on expected goals.

Southampton’s overall numbers against the top clubs are concerning: a -6 goal differential and similar negative expected goal metrics across all three games. While Liverpool has occasionally struggled to cover the spread on the road against weaker teams (like Ipswich Town, Wolves, and Crystal Palace), they did manage to cover against Ipswich, who are currently closest in quality to Southampton.

Another factor to consider is Liverpool’s midweek clash against Real Madrid in the Champions League. This could lead to some rotation, potentially affecting their performance. Even with changes to the lineup, however, I expect Liverpool to still cover the spread.

In summary, despite the betting trend and some historical indications, I lean toward Liverpool covering the spread, but I’m not fully endorsing this bet due to Southampton’s poor form against top sides.

Manchester City will host Tottenham at the Etihad Stadium this weekend for a high-stakes Premier League matchup. Despite a recent slump, Pep Guardiola’s side will be eager to turn things around, while Spurs will be hoping to bounce back after a tough loss.

Current Form: Manchester City has been on a rare losing streak, suffering four consecutive defeats in all competitions, including a 2-1 setback to Brighton before the international break. However, underlying statistics from the Brighton match suggest City outplayed their opponents, with a clear advantage in expected goals (xG). With several key players potentially returning to the squad, City will look to restore their form and continue their impressive home record.

Tottenham, on the other hand, is coming off a mixed stretch. After a solid victory over Aston Villa, Ange Postecoglou’s men were defeated 2-1 by Ipswich Town, signaling some inconsistency. Spurs will face an uphill battle, particularly with defensive injuries, including the potential absence of key central defender Micky van de Ven.

Betting Odds for Man City vs. Tottenham:

Spread: Man City -1.5 (+120) | Tottenham +1.5 (-175)
Over/Under Total: 3.5
Moneyline: Man City -190 | Tottenham +425 | Draw +360

Prediction: Given Manchester City’s historical strength at home following a loss and Tottenham’s defensive challenges, my prediction for this match is a Same Game Parlay: Manchester City to win and under 5.5 goals (-125).

City has an outstanding record when recovering from losses, winning 19 consecutive league matches at home after a defeat. While their recent form may suggest struggles, the statistics from their loss at Brighton show City was the stronger side, with a significant xG advantage. Guardiola’s team also has a strong history of bouncing back from tough losses, especially at the Etihad.

Additionally, Tottenham will be without van de Ven, a key part of their defense, which has historically resulted in poorer performances on the road. Last season, Spurs only managed one win in five away games without him, and their defensive vulnerabilities could be exposed against a City team with an attack capable of capitalizing on any errors.

Historically, home favorites after a loss by one or two goals have a stellar record, particularly when facing teams with recent road struggles. Given City’s impressive home record under Guardiola and Tottenham’s defensive issues, I expect City to win this match comfortably, but with the game likely staying under 5.5 goals, as has been the case in every City match this season.

Final Pick: Man City Moneyline & Under 5.5 Goals (-125).

Aston Villa will be looking to bounce back from a four-match winless streak when they host Crystal Palace at Villa Park this weekend. Villa has been struggling in recent weeks but remains strong at home, while Palace heads into the match after a defeat to Fulham, ending their own unbeaten run.

Current Form: Aston Villa has seen their momentum falter, losing back-to-back games to Tottenham and Liverpool, which has left them in ninth place in the Premier League. However, their home form remains solid, as they’ve yet to lose in their last four home games. Meanwhile, Crystal Palace was beaten 2-0 by Fulham before the break, ending a three-match unbeaten stretch. Their recent League Cup win over Villa shows they can be competitive, but they’ve struggled away from home this season.

Betting Odds for Aston Villa vs. Crystal Palace:

Spread: Villa -0.5 (-185) | Palace +0.5 (+125)
Over/Under Total: 2.5
Moneyline: Villa -165 | Palace +425 | Draw +310

Prediction: Considering Villa’s strong home form and Palace’s struggles on the road, my prediction for this match is a Same Game Parlay: Aston Villa to win and over 1.5 goals (-120).

Villa has been slightly unlucky in recent matches, especially with their home goal differential, which stands at +0 compared to their expected goal differential of +3, suggesting they’re due for a positive regression. Palace, on the other hand, has been fortunate in their away matches, with a -2 goal differential and a -4 post-shot expected goal differential in recent trips to Brentford, Chelsea, and Nottingham Forest.

Aston Villa also has a strong record against Crystal Palace at Villa Park. In their last meeting, Villa triumphed 3-1, dominating the expected goals (xG) battle with a -2.04 xG difference in favor of Villa. Moreover, Villa has a solid track record under Unai Emery when playing at home after a loss. Since Emery’s appointment, Villa has won 6 of 7 home games following a defeat, and they are 12-3 in matches after a loss or draw.

Historical trends also support backing Villa in this spot. Home favorites with a few days of rest (9-15 days) have been successful, with a 96-38 record since 2012, and 27-8 in the last four seasons. Specifically, teams in the -245 to -165 range are 27-7 SU since 2020, further bolstering Villa’s chances.

Given that Villa is strong at home and Palace struggles on the road, I’m confident that Villa will take all three points in this match. Additionally, with Villa’s attacking prowess and Palace’s defensive vulnerabilities, I expect at least two goals to be scored, making the over 1.5 goals a solid addition to the bet.

Final Pick: Aston Villa Moneyline & Over 1.5 Goals (-120).

Fulham will look to extend their winning streak to three games when they host Wolves at Craven Cottage this Saturday. With the Cottagers in solid form and Wolves struggling at the bottom of the Premier League table, Fulham is poised to secure all three points in this matchup.

Current Form: Fulham enters the game on a positive note after a 2-0 victory over Crystal Palace before the international break. That win marked their second consecutive victory and extended their unbeaten run to three matches. Meanwhile, Wolves secured a much-needed 2-0 win over Southampton in their last match, but they remain in the relegation zone, sitting 19th in the league.

Betting Odds for Fulham vs. Wolves:

Spread: Fulham -0.5 (-160) | Wolves +0.5 (+110)
Over/Under Total: 2.5
Moneyline: Fulham -145 | Wolves +360 | Draw +290

Prediction: I’m backing Fulham to win outright in this fixture, with a combined bet on the Fulham Moneyline & Over 1.5 Goals at odds of -110. This bet makes sense given Fulham’s current form and their strong home record.

Fulham has been consistently outperforming expectations, and their underlying statistics back up their recent performances. Only six teams have a better expected goal differential than Fulham this season, and they have been especially strong at home. They’ve yet to lose on expected goals at Craven Cottage, and their attack has been more effective against weaker opposition.

In their last meeting with Wolves, Fulham dominated the expected goals (xG) battle, despite losing 2-1 at Molineux. Fulham registered a 2.7-0.8 xG advantage, and over the last two matchups, they’ve outperformed Wolves by +3.42 xG. Even if you exclude penalties, Fulham still holds a +2.63 xG edge.

Looking at Fulham’s home performances against lower-ranked sides, they’ve shown their ability to control the match. Earlier this season, they defeated Leicester City 2-1 with a solid +1.2 xG advantage. These stats suggest Fulham is undervalued by the market, and they are in a historically strong position. Home favorites in similar situations (with 9-15 days between matches) have performed well, with a record of 96-38 since 2012.

Wolves’ Away Struggles: Wolves have had a tough time away from home this season, especially against mid-tier teams. Their recent trips to Brentford and Nottingham Forest ended in a draw and a loss, with both defeats coming by a margin of at least one post-shot xG.

With Wolves’ defensive vulnerabilities on the road and Fulham’s solid form, I expect the hosts to dominate and secure a comfortable victory. Take Fulham to earn all three points on Saturday and consider the over 1.5 goals for added value.

Newcastle is set to host West Ham at St. James’ Park this Monday, with the Magpies favored by 1.5 goals. While Newcastle comes into the match with momentum, having won 3-1 against Nottingham Forest before the international break, West Ham has struggled in recent fixtures, particularly away from home.

Current Form: Newcastle is in a strong position after their recent win, but their form has been somewhat inconsistent, especially in the first half of matches. West Ham, on the other hand, has had a challenging run of late, managing only one win in their last four matches. On the road, they’ve earned just five points from five matches this season.

Betting Odds for Newcastle vs. West Ham:

Spread: West Ham +1.5 (-190) | Newcastle -1.5 (+135)
Over/Under Total: 2.5
Moneyline: Newcastle -185 | West Ham +450 | Draw +333

Prediction: Given Newcastle’s strong second-half performances and West Ham’s struggles defensively, my prediction for this match focuses on the second half, where I expect Newcastle to secure a victory.

Historically, Newcastle has been stronger in the second half of matches, creating significantly more chances after the break. So far this season, they’ve generated 10.01 expected goals (xG) in the second half alone, out of a total of 16.11 xG. This trend remains consistent even with longer breaks between games, like the one they’ve had leading into this match. In two games with 14+ days between matches, Newcastle created 2.4 xG in the second half and earned a win and a draw.

Additionally, their head-to-head performance against West Ham last season further supports this. Newcastle won both second halves in their meetings with the Hammers, including a 2-1 and 3-1 win in those periods. The xG and post-shot xG metrics heavily favored Newcastle in both of those second halves, showcasing their dominance.

With this in mind, I’m backing Newcastle to win the second half (-125), which I believe will also lead to an overall victory. For those willing to take a bolder approach, Newcastle to win from behind (+675) could offer additional value, given the team’s ability to turn matches in their favor after halftime.

This game sets up as an opportunity for Newcastle to capitalize on their second-half strength while West Ham’s defensive issues could cost them again.

Arsenal welcomes Nottingham Forest to the Emirates Stadium this weekend, with the Gunners as 1.5-goal favorites. Despite Arsenal’s strong home record, my prediction for this match points toward Forest covering the spread.

Arsenal’s form has been underwhelming recently, with the team winless in their last four league games. They managed just a 1-1 draw away to Chelsea before the international break, and while they did beat Forest 2-0 last season, their overall performances this year have been less convincing.

In contrast, Nottingham Forest has been one of the season’s surprise packages. Managed by Nuno Espirito Santo, the team is currently fifth in the Premier League and remains unbeaten away from home so far this season.

Betting Odds for Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest:

Spread: Arsenal -1.5 (-110) | Nottingham Forest +1.5 (-130)
Over/Under Total: 2.5
Moneyline: Arsenal -300 | Nottingham Forest +825 | Draw +400

Prediction for Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest: I believe Nottingham Forest will be able to cover the +1.5 spread in this match. This is largely based on Forest’s exceptional defensive record and how they’ve performed against top teams this season.

Forest currently ranks second in the league for expected goals against and third for post-shot expected goals allowed, according to fbref.com. Their defensive resilience has been especially noticeable on the road. In tough away matches against Liverpool and Chelsea, Forest allowed just 1.35 post-shot expected goals over 167 minutes of play. This defensive solidity makes them a tough opponent for Arsenal, who have struggled to create high-quality chances this season.

Arsenal sits eighth in expected goals and fifth in post-shot expected goals, suggesting that their attack isn’t as potent as it has been in past seasons. Forest’s defense has also excelled against set-piece attacks, an area where Arsenal typically thrives. The Gunners are ranked fourth in xG from set pieces, but Forest ranks second in defending those situations, which could limit Arsenal’s chances of scoring from dead-ball situations.

Looking at historical trends, underdogs with a +1.5 or +2 spread have a strong track record in the Premier League, covering 71.8% of the time since 2012. Forest has been competitive in their recent meetings with Arsenal, staying within the spread in both games last season, so I expect them to do the same this time.

Given Forest’s defensive record and how they’ve held their ground against strong teams, I believe they can cover the +1.5 spread in this encounter.

This Saturday, Bournemouth will face Brighton & Hove Albion in a South Coast derby at Vitality Stadium, with the Cherries set as slight favorites at -0.5. Both teams have been showing mixed but competitive form in the Premier League, making this match one to watch closely.

Bournemouth recently suffered a narrow 3-2 defeat at Brentford, which ended a three-game unbeaten streak, a run during which they were often considered underdogs. In contrast, Brighton enters this match on the back of an impressive 2-1 win against Manchester City, having turned the game around after trailing at halftime. Brighton is currently sitting comfortably in sixth place in the league, showcasing their resilience.

For betting purposes, here’s a closer look at the odds and a prediction for Bournemouth vs. Brighton.

Betting Odds: Bournemouth vs. Brighton

Spread: Brighton +0.5 (-175) | Bournemouth -0.5 (+120)
Over/Under Total: 2.5 (O/U)
Moneyline: Brighton +180 | Bournemouth +130 | Draw +270

Match Prediction: If Antoine Semenyo is in the starting lineup for Bournemouth, I’m leaning towards backing Bournemouth to score over 0.5 goals in the first half (-130). This bet hinges largely on Semenyo’s availability, as he has been a key attacking player for the Cherries.

Brighton has struggled defensively in the opening 45 minutes of their matches. They’ve conceded over 10 expected goals in the first half so far this season, a significant increase compared to the second half where they have allowed only around 8.91 expected goals. Despite this, they’ve been fortunate in some respects, with only five goals conceded in the first half across 11 matches. In fact, their defense has shown vulnerability early, allowing more than their expected tally.

Bournemouth, despite not being prolific in the first half, has scored in four of their last 11 matches. More importantly, they have found the net in the first half of their last two games, showing improved attacking form. Against Brighton last season, Bournemouth was able to create plenty of chances early, scoring within the first 30 minutes in both encounters.

The main factor to consider here is the inclusion of Semenyo. If he plays, his presence in attack will significantly boost Bournemouth’s chances of scoring early. Without him, however, they lose a key offensive threat, which could impact their ability to take control of the game.

I’ll hold off on making a definitive prediction until the starting lineups are confirmed, but if Semenyo is available, betting on Bournemouth to score in the first half could be a strong option.